Breakanomics: 2022-23 Upper Deck Artifacts Hockey Retail

Breakanomics™: The economics of the break

Summary Break Stats

Number of Boxes

Cost per Box

$74.95

Packs per Box

Cards per Box

120

Summary Hits Stats

Total # of Hits

High Hit Value

$14.00

Low Hit Value

$2.00

Average Hit Value

$5.70

Percentage of Packs with Hits

9.7%

Cost of hit acquisition

$32.12 each

Return on Investment

Avg Box Value

$102.9

* Based on a variety of online resources

Avg Pack Value

$4.29

* Based on a variety of online resources

ROI (Value)

35.5%
* Based on a variety of online resources

ROI (Actual Sales)

$47.50
* as of 7/6/2023 (7 cards sold)

Total Spent on Boxes

$449.70

Total Value of all Cards

$617.55

Detailed Metrics

High Box

$114.15

Low Box

$95.70

High Pack

$17.20

Low Pack

$1.70

Card#: AF-DC
Dylan Cozens Autograph (Sticker)
Value: $14.00

Card#: RED217
Nashville Predators Rookie Redemption
Value: $14.00

High Card

$14.00

Cozens Auto

Nashville RC Redemption

Low Card

$0.40

Many cards

Interesting Stats

Chance that Morrissey is in the same pack as Petry

71.4%

(5 of 7 packs)

Chance that Marner is in the same pack as Hall

62.5%

(5 of 8 packs)

Percent of hits in packs on the left side of the box

57.1%

(8 of 14 packs)

Likelihood that cards from a random retail pack will be valued at more than $5.00

19.4%

(28 of 144 packs)

Likelihood that cards from a random retail pack will be valued at more than $10.00

2.1%

(3 of 144 packs)

Chance that a box has a hit is in the 11th pack from the top (right or left stack)

50%

(3 of 6 boxes)

Total Base Card Distribution Over All Boxes

(Number of cards pulled from all the boxes)

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/2/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

Total box value: $97.95 -- Avg pack value: $4.08

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/2/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

Total box value: $100.65 -- Avg pack value: $4.19

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/2/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/3/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/24/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/13/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

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This deep dive into expected value highlights how probability drives both collecting and entertainment. Whether assessing card breakage or maximizing returns, understanding the underlying odds is key. It’s a universal principle of risk management, whether you’re analyzing a market or enjoying a megaperya game. Fascinating economic model!

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