Breakanomics: 2022-23 Upper Deck Artifacts Hockey Retail

Complete breakdown of what came out of this break - all 6 boxes of retail thoroughly analyzed so you know what to expect. Metrics, values, how many of each card - more detail than you bargained for....

Breakanomics™: The economics of the break

Summary Break Stats

Number of Boxes

6

Cost per Box

$74.95

Packs per Box

24

Cards per Box

120

Summary Hits Stats

Total # of Hits

14

High Hit Value

$14.00

Low Hit Value

$2.00

Average Hit Value

$5.70

Percentage of Packs with Hits

9.7%

Cost of hit acquisition

$32.12 each

Return on Investment

Avg Box Value

$102.9

* Based on a variety of online resources

Avg Pack Value

$4.29

* Based on a variety of online resources

ROI (Value)

35.5%
* Based on a variety of online resources

ROI (Actual Sales)

$47.50
* as of 7/6/2023 (7 cards sold)

Total Spent on Boxes

$449.70

Total Value of all Cards

$617.55

Detailed Metrics

High Box

$114.15

Low Box

$95.70

High Pack

$17.20

Low Pack

$1.70

Cozens

Card#: AF-DC
Dylan Cozens Autograph (Sticker)
Value: $14.00

Nashville

Card#: RED217
Nashville Predators Rookie Redemption
Value: $14.00

High Card

$14.00

Cozens Auto
Nashville RC Redemption
Low Card

$0.40

Many cards

Interesting Stats

Chance that Morrissey is in the same pack as Petry

71.4%

(5 of 7 packs)

Chance that Marner is in the same pack as Hall

62.5%

(5 of 8 packs)

Percent of hits in packs on the left side of the box

57.1%

(8 of 14 packs)

Likelihood that cards from a random retail pack will be valued at more than $5.00

19.4%

(28 of 144 packs)

Likelihood that cards from a random retail pack will be valued at more than $10.00

2.1%

(3 of 144 packs)

Chance that a box has a hit is in the 11th pack from the top (right or left stack)

50%

(3 of 6 boxes)

Total Base Card Distribution Over All Boxes
(Number of cards pulled from all the boxes)

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/2/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

Total box value: $97.95 -- Avg pack value: $4.08

                                

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/2/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

Total box value: $100.65 -- Avg pack value: $4.19

                          

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/2/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

                        

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/3/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

                        

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/24/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

                           

Box break date: 3/23/23 -- Value lookup date: 4/13/23 -- packs ordered by stack (LEFT 1 = top pack on left side of box) -- Pack # is order pack was opened in video

                        

407 thoughts on “Breakanomics: 2022-23 Upper Deck Artifacts Hockey Retail

  1. This is a fascinating breakdown of box economics! With a 35.5% ROI and cards averaging $32.12 each, the variance in hit quality is striking – that Cozens Auto redemption really drives the value concentration. Like how the oktt app analyzes gaming patterns, these box break metrics reveal why calculated risk management matters in collectibles. Great data!

  2. This break analysis demonstrates solid ROI potential at 35.5%. The variance distribution across those 144 packs reminds me of probability modeling in phl789 slot algorithms – consistent statistical patterns emerge even in sports cards. That $32.12 average hit value speaks volumes about market efficiency.

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